Three-Year Cash Flow

Business plan · monthly projection · VAT inclusive

Cash balance over 36 months

Net sales vs costs (monthly)

Profit by year

Top advice & warnings

Business basics

Business name

Start month (Year 1, Month 1)

Opening cash balance (£)

VAT settings

UK VAT registration is mandatory once rolling 12-month turnover exceeds the threshold (currently £90,000, from April 2024). Select "No — register when required" if you want the model to handle this automatically: no VAT is applied to sales or recovered on costs until the threshold is crossed, at which point both kick in from the following month. Select "Yes — from day 1" only if you've voluntarily registered (e.g. to reclaim VAT on heavy capex).

Start VAT registered?

VAT rate %

Corporation tax % (annual on profit)

VAT registration threshold (£, rolling 12mo)

Auto-register when threshold crossed?

Capex-heavy openings often benefit from registering on day 1 to reclaim VAT on fit-out.

Year 1 sales baseline

Enter your expected average monthly sales (gross, inc VAT) in a "normal" month. Seasonality below distributes it across the 12 months.

Avg monthly gross sales — Year 1 (£)

Avg monthly customers/transactions (Y1)

Growth assumptions

Year 2 growth %

Year 3 growth %

Seasonality weighting (12 months × 100% = even)

Each month's % of an "average" month. 100 = average, 130 = 30% busier than average, 70 = 30% quieter. Adjust for your trading pattern — most businesses have some seasonality even if they don't realise it.

Average across 12 months: 100.0% (should be ~100% for the annual total to match the baseline)

Cost of sales (COGS)

Food/drink cost % of net sales

Target GP %

Wastage / shrinkage

Stock loss, write-offs, returns, damaged goods, theft, free samples, comps. Varies massively by sector — service businesses near 0%, retail 1–3%, hospitality 2–5%, perishables higher. Modelled as an additional cost on top of COGS.

Wastage % of net sales

Effective true COGS = COGS% + Wastage%

Payroll — split by team

Base wages split across three teams. Adjust the percentages and labels for your business — these are illustrative defaults. Each team has a % of net sales (scales with revenue) and a fixed minimum floor (so quiet months still cover essential headcount).

Sales / Customer-facing

Sales team % of net sales

Sales fixed minimum £/mo

Account managers, sales reps, customer success, retail floor staff.

Operations / Delivery

Operations % of net sales

Operations fixed minimum £/mo

Production, service delivery, technical, logistics, fulfilment.

Admin / Management

Admin % of net sales

Admin fixed minimum £/mo

Owner/director salary, finance, HR, office. Mostly fixed.

Combined base wages: 0% of net sales (excl. NI/pension)

Employer on-costs

Applied to the total of all three role categories. UK defaults: Employer NI 15% (from April 2025, threshold lowered to £5k), workplace pension 3% minimum employer contribution.

Employer NI % (on gross wages)

Pension contribution % (on gross wages)

Combined on-cost: 18%

Fixed monthly overheads (£, inc VAT where applicable)

Opening capex (Month 1)

One-off costs at launch. These hit cash in Month 1 only and are recovered through depreciation (informational — not in cash flow).

Funding

Owner investment (£, Month 1)

Bank loan amount (£)

Loan interest rate % p.a.

Loan term (months)

Loan starts in month #

Interest-only period (months)

Annual summary

Key ratios & narrative

Scorecard

Each factor is scored 0–10. Total out of 100 drives the recommendation.

Full advisor report

What this verdict does and doesn't do

This is a numerical sense-check using typical small-business benchmarks — it doesn't know your market, competition, your operating experience, your customer base, contracts in hand, or the macroeconomic climate. A "Go" verdict means the numbers stack up if your sales assumptions hold. A "Stop" verdict means they don't even on paper. Either way, get an accountant to review before signing anything.